A season without Champions League play is frustrating for Chelsea supporters, as competition with the best clubs in Europe has essentially become an annual expectation. Unfortunately, the Blues are going to have to have a very strong finish in their Premier League campaign this season to qualify for next year’s UCL as well. In the meantime though, because we can’t actually watch the Blues compete in the Champions League round of 16 that’s underway right now, we thought we’d take something of a hypothetical look at the action.
So, in a world in which Chelsea had rallied last season, qualified, and pushed through to this point, which of the remaining sides would the Blues be likely to defeat?
Schalke – Every year, even in the round of 16, a few weaker teams slip through. Despite Schalke’s outstanding campaign en route to securing qualification in 2017/18, the German side falls under this description. It’s an overmatched team almost certain to lose out to Manchester City, and a side this year’s Chelsea team would be favoured to beat. Verdict: Chelsea would win.
Manchester City – Anything can happen in any match between EPL powers, and Man City and the Blues just recently went to penalties in the Football League Cup. Nevertheless, there’s little doubt about who would be expected to advance here this year. Some of the latest football tips covering the UCL have continued to cite Man City among the favourites, and there’s little reason to disagree. Chelsea would have a shot but would have to play perfect football to escape two legs with City. Verdict: Chelsea would lose.
Atlético Madrid – This would be an excellent pairing, even if Atlético has an occasional tendency to muddy up matches in a way not everyone appreciates watching. It’s easy to imagine this hypothetical pairing coming down to a tiebreak, though if we had to make a guess as to how it would go, the Atlético defence (what else?) would win out. The Blues’ deficiency this season is in goal scoring at their usual pace, and struggling to find the back of the net against this La Liga side is a death sentence (as Juventus may be finding in the actual pairing). Verdict: Chelsea would lose.
Juventus – This would be another very close pairing, which speaks to the fact that Atlético and Juventus is one of the most exciting matchups of the actual round of 16. In a hypothetical Chelsea versus Juventus matchup, one can imagine home-and-home wins, with goal differential deciding the outcome. Juventus is the stronger side overall, however, and the way Ronaldo plays in UCL competition might be too much for this particular iteration of Stamford Bridge defence. Verdict: Chelsea would lose.
Manchester United – This is a contest we’ll see again in April in Premier League play, and if Chelsea is able to put together some strong play until that point, it may actually go a long way toward deciding if the Blues make it back into the Champions League picture in 2019/20. On paper, Chelsea may actually still be the stronger side, despite being a couple of points behind in the EPL standings. Since United is perhaps a more cohesive unit, however, and recently won the FA Cup match, it’s only fair to give them the edge. Verdict: Chelsea would lose.
PSG – This version of PSG boasts as much headline talent as any team in Europe, and at full strength could conceivably be an overall favourite. Even with Neymar out and Edinson Cavani banged up, the Ligue 1 leaders thrashed Man Utd. at Old Trafford in their recent first leg match. It’s tempting to say Chelsea could defeat a hobbled PSG side, but in this case that can’t be said clearly or, frankly, logically. Verdict: Chelsea would lose.
Tottenham Hotspur – Tottenham has been a thorn in Chelsea’s side – and Man Utd.’s and Arsenal’s for that matter – by upending the top tier order of the league to some degree. We’re about to find out which club is in better form in the EPL, and you may have read here some predictions for how Chelsea will approach the match. Heading into that match though, we’ll stubbornly give the edge to the Blues. Provided a bit more cohesion which is yet to be found under Sarri, Chelsea still seems like the team with the greater potential. Verdict: Chelsea would win.
Dortmund – Dortmund has had a machine-like season in the Bundesliga, but lacks the true star power that most teams rely on to succeed in UCL play, and was recently treated to a beating at Wembley (at the hands of Tottenham, in the first leg). It almost feels arrogant to say a sixth-place Premier League team would be able to defeat the Bundesliga leaders, and in past seasons it would have been ludicrous. But this season it might actually be true. Verdict: Chelsea would win.
Lyon – Lyon is one of the few remaining UCL teams that can more or less be dismissed. That’s no disrespect, and as one team-by-team guide correctly asserted, they can trouble any side on their day. However, the difference in quality here is clear. Verdict: Chelsea would win.
Barcelona – Let’s not kid ourselves with this one. Barcelona, as has often been the case of late, is one of the two or three leading favourites in the Champions League, and is a sound step above Chelsea at this moment. Verdict: Chelsea would lose.
Roma – Roma is a pesky side, and actually has better odds in some places to win the Champions League than most of the other lower-tier teams left in the mix. It’s a team that will challenge more talented sides with a defensive, counter-attacking approach, which could spell trouble for the Blues. That said, as with Lyon, there’s a clear talent gap here that should, hypothetically, tip the scales. Verdict: Chelsea would win.
Porto – Unquestionably one of the two or three worst sides remaining, Porto is happy to be in the round of 16 and wouldn’t expect to advance further against many opponents. Were they to be matched up with this year’s Chelsea team that still wouldn’t change; they’d be overpowered one way or the other. Verdict: Chelsea would win.
Ajax – Ajax is a talented team and a potent offence, and acquitted itself reasonably well in a 1-2 loss to Real Madrid in Amsterdam when some expected them to be thrashed. It’s possible Chelsea would be favoured in this pairing only to be challenged more than expected, or even defeated. Possible, but not necessarily likely. The Blues’ defence is far from perfect, but could probably hold the Dutch side at bay enough for a clear edge to be established. Verdict: Chelsea would win.
Real Madrid – It’s amazing that as much as Ronaldo thrives in Champions League play, his former team has remained among the top contenders without him this season. Even a recent article written in the thick of the round of 16 cited multiple reasons to bank on Real Madrid winning the title, in what would be a fairly extraordinary achievement. The team has formidable experience even without Ronaldo, and as the aforementioned article pointed out will be focused on a UCL cup if Barcelona runs away with the La Liga race (which seems likely). Chelsea is good enough to be competitive here, but would likely lose out. Verdict: Chelsea would lose.
Liverpool – Supporters might debate to no end whether Chelsea ought to be closer to Liverpool’s level, based on the rosters on paper. It’s simply not reasonable to pick against a 16-point domestic difference, however, which is how far ahead Liverpool is at the moment. Verdict: Chelsea would lose.
Bayern – Bayern isn’t the powerhouse it was a few years ago but it remains a thoroughly well-constructed team equally strong one both ends of the field. The German side isn’t the favourite, but wouldn’t shock many people by lifting the cup – and could even knock off Liverpool after forcing a 0-0 draw in Anfield in the first leg of their round of 16 paring. Chelsea is capable of beating a team this good at its best, but wouldn’t be likely to, if we’re being honest. Verdict: Chelsea would lose.
That brings us to seven teams Chelsea would likely beat (by our estimation), and nine it would lose to. That’s a fairly average, competitive hypothetical showing, but also shows what we already know, which is that the Blues need marked improvement if they’re to qualify and be competitive anytime soon.
